Flood exposure for vertebrates in China's terrestrial priority areas for biodiversity conservation: Identifying internal refugia

- Amphibians, birds & mammals in China face significant contemporary flood exposure.
- Areas for conservation priority capture limited species' internal refugia.
- Most species exposed are not flagged at risk from floods in the red-list assessment.
- Management based on species intrinsic vulnerability for a given level of exposure is crucial.
- Evaluation of cost-effectiveness of management options is also crucial.

Extreme weather events are likely to increase in the coming decades which may have severe consequences on biodiversity. As conservation funding is limited, identifying priority areas for conservation of species prone to climatic impacts may improve the benefit of conservation investments. As part of its Biodiversity Action Plan, China is carrying out an initiative to evaluate new threats from climatic impacts by 2030 in Priority Areas for Biodiversity Conservation (PABCs). Focusing on floods, which are exhibiting an increasing trend in recent decades in the country, we generated information for such an initiative. We investigated contemporary flood exposure and species internal refugia for all amphibians, birds, and mammals within the 32 terrestrial PABCs of China. Amphibians comprised the greatest number of species at significant flood exposure followed by mammals and birds (~ 90%, ~ 81%, ~ 52% of the total species richness in the country, respectively). However, availability of flood-free internal refugia > 10% and ≤ 25% was found for ~ 15% mammals, ~ 29% birds and ~ 1% amphibians. Large areas within PABCs are highly exposed to floods. Species in these areas possessing traits that contribute sensitivity and low adaptability to flood disturbance are the ones expected to face negative delayed effects from past exposure, or to possess less resilience to future impacts, including human activities. In the face of multiple threats we call for implementation of cost-effective strategies that strengthen ongoing conservation actions in flood-prone areas and refugia (e.g., landscape connectivity, habitat restoration, afforestation) to better assist in the allocation of limited resources for protecting vulnerable species.