An integrated trait-based framework to predict extinction risk and guide conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots

Determining species extinction risk and its drivers is a major goal for conservation biology. The IUCN Red List is widely used for classifying extinction-risk and prioritizing conservation action. However, this system has been acknowledged as biased and complementary approaches are strongly recommended to achieve more reliable conclusions on conservation priorities. Species traits, often perceived as determinant for resiliency to disturbances, have been used to identify potentially vulnerable species, even when data are scarce (e.g. Data Deficient species). We provide an integrative and cost-effective framework for predicting species extinction-risk using data on 195 anurans from the Brazilian Cerrado. We used IUCN population trend and expert-perceived vulnerability to habitat alteration as response variables, to identify traits associated to increased extinction-risk. We used species traits, threat pressure and geographic range to determine which species and areas should have higher conservation priority. We found the IUCN extinction-risk to be underestimated, as many species categorized as LC or DD are actually sensitive and/or declining. We identified breeding site, habitat and clutch size as predictors of anuran extinction risk. We found that > 70% of the biome's anurans have major protection gaps, incurring in high extinction-risk. The southwest and central regions of the biome are the main hotspots for high extinction-risk species and should be prioritized for conservation. Our framework may be particularly valuable to assess extinction-risk and prioritize conservation action regarding less studied taxa and regions with high anthropogenic pressure, but weak government support and scarce funding.