Spatial correlates of livestock depredation by Amur tigers in Hunchun, China: Relevance of prey density and implications for protected area management

Livestock depredation by highly endangered Amur tigers is a major source of human-tiger conflict in Northeast China. We model livestock depredation risk to understand factors shaping the spatial distribution of depredation conflicts using Hunchun, China as a case study. Ungulate occupancy survey data, presence of ungulate snares and other landscape covariates (such as elevation, slope and tree cover) were first used to model ungulate prey densities using generalised least squares. Predicted densities were then incorporated together with landscape covariates as predictors for actual livestock depredation incidents in a zero-inflated negative binomial model for depredation risk. Lower overall prey densities were associated with proximity to snares, and other anthropogenic-related covariates like distances to villages and roads were also important predictors of prey densities. Depredation conflicts were associated with closer proximity to snares and rivers, greater distances from roads, greater tree cover, and deciduous forest habitats. High-risk areas were found to be concentrated in community-management zones in Hunchun National Nature Reserve (HNR). The results suggest that compensation payments for depredations within HNR provide an unwanted incentive for local people to continue to use the protected area (especially in community co-managed zones) as grazing lands, leading to increased conflict. Eliminating cattle and snaring from HNR and other tiger recovery zones within Northeast China may be essential to reduce conflicts and minimise detrimental impacts on tiger populations.