Genetic and environmental influences on pup mortality risk for wolves and coyotes within a Canis hybrid zone

Eastern wolves (Canis lycaon) are a species of special concern federally in Canada that have hybridized extensively with coyotes (Canis latrans) and gray wolves (Canis lupus) in and adjacent to Algonquin Provincial Park (APP), Ontario. A comprehensive understanding of eastern wolf demography and wolf-coyote hybridization dynamics is needed for informed management, yet no studies have investigated the influence of genetic ancestry and environmental heterogeneity on survival of wolf, coyote, and hybrid pups. We used telemetry, genetic, and environmental data to model and estimate genotype-specific survival and cause-specific mortality of Canis pups (n = 159) in eastern and western APP (2002-2011) and the adjacent Wildlife Management Unit 49 (WMU49; 2008-2011). Pup survival was higher in eastern APP (ŝ = 0.75) and WMU49 (ŝ = 0.61) than in western APP (ŝ = 0.25). In APP, mortality risk of pups was primarily influenced by prey availability as lower beaver density in western APP negatively influenced survival and increased starvation risk. Genetic ancestry only influenced pup mortality risk outside of APP with eastern wolf × coyote hybrids surviving poorly relative to other Canis types in WMU49. Poor survival of pups in western APP reduces dispersal from the protected area and decreases the likelihood of expansion of this genetically distinct eastern wolf population beyond APP. Our results advance understanding of wolf and coyote demography as no previous studies have investigated genetic and environmental factors influencing mortality of wolf and coyote pups <4-5 months of age with telemetry data.