Modeling the transport pathways of harmful algal blooms in the Iberian coast

- Ocean circulation models are useful to predict or simulate HABs spatial patterns.
- Hindcast simulations of Gymnodinium catenatum, Dinophysis acuminata and Pseudo-nitzschia spp. blooms.
- Evaluation of different scenarios of bloom center and timing.
- Insights to explain the spatial evolution of HABs events.

The prediction of the path of harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the coast can be achieved using numerical models of ocean circulation in order to reproduce the hydrodynamics of the study area. With this setting, our work aimed at the (1) study of key past events to evaluate the model ability to reproduce the transport pathways of blooms along the Iberian coast, and (2) to assess the relevance of such strictly physical approach. The simulations described here rely on the advection of lagrangian elements after a point release in a hypothetical location for bloom initiation, and the subsequent assessment of the influence of the surface currents transport on the extent of the bloom. Five events were simulated, accounting for blooms of Gymnodinium catenatum, Dinophysis acuminata and Pseudo-nitzschia spp. Model results were compared with field data from the National HAB monitoring program, and were used to evaluate some hypothesis in their interpretation. The effort compiled in this paper, though focused on the transport and dispersion of HAB (after bloom detection), was a critical step toward an integrative forecasting system to determine potential HAB impacted areas, also addressed in this Special Issue.