Positive feedbacks between bottom-up and top-down controls promote the formation and toxicity of ecosystem disruptive algal blooms: A modeling study

- Positive feedbacks linked to grazing and nutrient cycling promote toxic blooms.
- This feedback promotes nutrient limitation of algal growth rates.
- Nutrient limitation of algal growth rate increases cellular toxins and bloom toxicity.
- Increased toxicity from nutrient limitation causes an additional positive feedback.
- Increased water residence time promotes bloom occurrence and toxicity.

Harmful algal blooms that disrupt and degrade ecosystems (ecosystem disruptive algal blooms, EDABs) are occurring with greater frequency and severity with eutrophication and other adverse anthropogenic alterations of coastal systems. EDAB events have been hypothesized to be caused by positive feedback interactions involving differential growth of competing algal species, low grazing mortality rates on EDAB species, and resulting decreases in nutrient inputs from grazer-mediated nutrient cycling as the EDAB event progresses. Here we develop a stoichiometric nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) model to test a conceptual positive feedback mechanism linked to increased cell toxicity and resultant decreases in grazing mortality rates in EDAB species under nutrient limitation of growth rate. As our model EDAB alga, we chose the slow-growing, toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, whose toxin levels have been shown to increase with nutrient (nitrogen) limitation of specific growth rate. This species was competed with two high-nutrient adapted, faster-growing diatoms (Thalassiosira pseudonana and Thalassiosira weissflogii) using recently published data for relationships among nutrient (ammonium) concentration, carbon normalized ammonium uptake rates, cellular nitrogen:carbon (N:C) ratios, and specific growth rate. The model results support the proposed positive feedback mechanism for EDAB formation and toxicity. In all cases the toxic bloom was preceded by one or more pre-blooms of fast-growing diatoms, which drew dissolved nutrients to low growth rate-limiting levels, and stimulated the population growth of zooplankton grazers. Low specific grazing rates on the toxic, nutrient-limited EDAB species then promoted the population growth of this species, which further decreased grazing rates, grazing-linked nutrient recycling, nutrient concentrations, and algal specific growth rates. The nutrient limitation of growth rate further increased toxin concentrations in the EDAB algae, which further decreased grazing-linked nutrient recycling rates and nutrient concentrations, and caused an even greater nutrient limitation of growth rate and even higher toxin levels in the EDAB algae. This chain of interactions represented a positive feedback that resulted in the formation of a high-biomass toxic bloom, with low, nutrient-limited specific growth rates and associated high cellular C:N and toxin:C ratios. Together the elevated C:N and toxin:C ratios in the EDAB algae resulted in very high bloom toxicity. The positive feedbacks and resulting bloom formation and toxicity were increased by long water residence times, which increased the relative importance of grazing-linked nutrient recycling to the overall supply of limiting nutrient (N).