Tobacco epidemics: Effect of marketing bans and awareness programs on its spread

- Impact of ban on tobacco advertisement is studied for the first time.
- Static policy focusing on tobacco users is found to be best policy.
- 8 log difference is noticed between the intensity of policies focusing tobacco and non-tobacco users.
- Immigration keeps tobacco epidemics endemic.
- Targeting non-tobacco users with media awareness programs is not beneficial to the cause of reducing epidemics.

Tobacco, an anathema for the mankind is expected to increase its death toll to 1 billion people in 21st century in the recent report of World Health Organization (WHO). It has been lime lighted in the report that articulated awareness programs, to aware people about the harmful effects of tobacco consumption can decrease in the death toll. Therefore in this paper, a non-linear mathematical model has been proposed and analyzed to study the effects of media and awareness programs on the spread of tobacco epidemics. Four different cases were studied. Policies focusing on tobacco users at a constant rate were found to be most productive in reducing tobacco epidemics. We also determined that not only internal factors but also external factors can play an important role in determining best policy. The model analysis shows that the spread of tobacco epidemics can be controlled by conducting awareness programs by media but tobacco epidemics remains endemic due to immigration and birth. The simulation analysis of the model is also carried out to confirm the analytical results.