A CAEV epidemiological model for goat breeding

- A model for the genotype B Caprine Arthritis Encephalitis virus disease is presented.
- Only endemic and disease-free equilibria arise, and a transcritical bifurcation.
- Eradication is possible only for very small economically unaffordable herds.
- In absence of vaccination new strategies for fighting the disease are needed.

In this paper we analyze the Caprine Arthritis Encephalitis virus disease. We construct a very general model for its epidemiology, for the case when the disease is caused only by a specific viral strain, called the genotype B. The model has only the endemic and the disease-free equilibria, with a transcritical bifurcation connecting the two. Eradication based on this analysis is possible only for very small herds, so that it can hardly be considered economically affordable. The study suggests that in absence of control measures new means of fighting the disease are needed, paving the road for further theoretical and field work.