Probabilistic power flow analysis considering the dependence between power and heat

This paper presents methods for assessing the statistical interdependencies between solar irradiance and the outside temperature, which are used to assess the correspondence between the operation of technologies to meet the heat demands and the PV output. It is important to be able to assess the impact of heating technology changes and increased PV penetration on power system requirements. Considering the correlation between the PV outputs and heat loads, there exist multiple effects of weather variations on the “Source-Grid-Load.” Heat load, photovoltaic (PV), electric air conditioner (EC), natural gas-fuelled combined heat and power (CHP), and central heating boiler models are established to study the influences of the solar irradiance and the temperature of the outdoors. The energy dependence impacts on the “Source-Grid-Load” are simulated in a 41-bus distribution network, and the paper's results show how the correspondence between the temperature and solar irradiance can impact the system's requirements.