کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6692215 | 501914 | 2013 | 6 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling primary energy substitution in the Asia Pacific
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدلسازی جایگزینی انرژی اولیه در آسیا و اقیانوس آرام
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کلمات کلیدی
مخلوط انرژی، جایگزینی، انتقال،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
چکیده انگلیسی
A Global Energy Market model (GEM) is used to analyze the market shares (i.e. the primary energy mix) of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. The model is successful in matching the historical energy mix from 1850 to 2009. The model also provides a good match of the hydrogen to carbon ratio, which is a proxy for environmental quality. Given these validations, the GEM is then used to present scenarios of the Asia Pacific energy mix and hydrogen to carbon ratio until the year 2030. Three energy mix scenarios are presented - reference case; alternative case 1; alternative case 2. The reference case assumes limited divergence from current policies and technologies. It indicates that Asia Pacific energy needs will be met by approximately 46% solids, 34% liquids, and 20% gases by 2030. Alternative cases 1 and 2 represent policies and technologies that either encourage or discourage the use of gases. The good matches observed for historical data suggest the GEM can be used cautiously for evaluating outcomes and opportunities in the region. Although the model can be used for projecting far into the future, it is currently calibrated to what we consider a reasonable time horizon - until the year 2030. Given appropriate energy policies and sufficient technological advancement, the importance of natural gas in the region could increase significantly.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Applied Energy - Volume 111, November 2013, Pages 219-224
Journal: Applied Energy - Volume 111, November 2013, Pages 219-224
نویسندگان
Roberto F. Aguilera, Ronald D. Ripple,