Uncertainty analyses of time-dependent behaviour of Ballina test embankment

This paper presents Class A and Class C predictions illustrating the variability of predicted settlement, horizontal displacement and pore pressure under the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Geotechnical Science and Engineering (CGSE) Ballina test embankment. Probabilistic methods were combined with the finite element program Plaxis 2D to calculate mean and variance. The Class A prediction underestimated the measured settlement because of too high stiffness above and below the estuarine clay and too low shear deformation in the estuarine clay. The predicted time-settlement curve was too rapid. The Class C prediction resulted in a reasonably good match of the measured behaviour with time.