Consumer behaviour in the residential heating sector in Austria: Findings from a bottom-up modelling approach

Energy system models usually have to rely on technical parameters like building standards. This kind of technical approach leads to an overestimation of energy demand for heating in the Austrian building sector. Consumer behaviour has been identified as one of the major reasons for this overestimation. In this analysis, a bottom-up energy system model for the residential heating sector has been built with the model generator TIMES and expanded by findings on consumer behaviour. The model is used to investigate the effect of consumer behaviour on residential space heating demand in Austria from 2007 to 2030, and to quantify the implications on possible future energy savings. Model results show that (1) energy demand for residential heating is slightly decreasing, (2) consumer behaviour greatly affects energy demand, (3) neglecting consumer behaviour leads to a significant overestimation of possible energy savings due to building-standard improvement. This analysis provides a better understanding of the interaction between thermal improvements of buildings and consumer behaviour and enables better founded outlooks on possible future energy savings.