Modelling sustainable bioenergy potentials from agriculture for Germany and Eastern European countries

This paper presents a model for analyzing the sustainable potential of agricultural biomass for energy production. Available land and residue potentials are assessed up to 2030 for Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Two scenarios are presented: a “business as usual” scenario is compared to a sustainability scenario. The latter implements a comprehensive sustainability strategy, taking also into account non-agricultural land use such as building activity and nature conservation. On the one hand our model quantifies the conflict of objectives between enhanced extensification in agriculture and increased area for nature conservation. On the other hand the synergies in restricting built up area and increased mobilisation of agricultural residues are assessed. Additionally the impact of reduced subsidized agricultural exports from the EU is calculated, also as an indicator for the influence of world food markets on bioenergy potentials.Our results show that the sustainable energy potential from agricultural biomass is strongly restricted for Germany and the Czech Republic compared to their energy demand. But in Poland and Hungary native agricultural biomass provides a much higher potential for energy supply, even if sustainability is comprehensively considered. However, this is strongly influenced by the amount of agricultural exports of each country. For bioenergy from agricultural cultivation to remain a sustainable option in the energy sector, its influence on the food markets must be respected more thoroughly and a comprehensive approach to sustainable development in land use is a prerequisite.