A cellular model for secondary lahars and simulation of cases in the Vascún Valley, Ecuador

Cellular Automata (CA) represent a computational paradigm for simulating complex fluid-dynamical phenomena, that evolve on the basis of local interactions. Secondary lahars are highly destructive surface flows that originate from the mobilization of pyroclastic deposits by exceptionally heavy rainfalls. CA modelling of rain-induced lahars could be an important tool for risk management in threatened regions. LLUNPIY is a CA model, developed and partially applied on two real events: the 2005 and 2008 secondary lahars of Vascún Valley, Ecuador. Simulations are satisfying: a comparison of 2005 event was performed with the two-dimensional model Titan2D and field data, while results of 2008 event were confronted only with field data.