کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6897709 1446036 2014 16 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Medium range optimization of copper extraction planning under uncertainty in future copper prices
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
بهینه سازی متوسط ​​محدوده برنامه ریزی استخراج مس تحت عدم اطمینان در قیمت مس آینده
کلمات کلیدی
معدن، مدل های برنامه ریزی، عدم اطمینان قیمت مس، مقادیر چند مرحله ای مخلوط 0 به 1 بهینه سازی، خطر گریزی،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر علوم کامپیوتر (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Deterministic mine planning models along a time horizon have proved to be very effective in supporting decisions on sequencing the extraction of material in copper mines. Some of these models have been developed for, and used successfully by CODELCO, the Chilean state copper company. In this paper, we wish to consider the uncertainty in a very volatile parameter of the problem, namely, the copper price along a given time horizon. We represent the uncertainty by a multistage scenario tree. The resulting stochastic model is then converted into a mixed 0-1 Deterministic Equivalent Model using a compact representation. We first introduce the stochastic model that maximizes the expected profit along the time horizon over all scenarios (i.e., as in a risk neutral environment). We then present several approaches for risk management in a risk averse environment. Specifically, we consider the maximization of the Value-at-Risk and several variants of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (one of them is new), the maximization of the expected profit minus the weighted probability of having an undesirable scenario in the solution provided by the model, and the maximization of the expected profit subject to stochastic dominance constraints recourse-integer for a set of profiles given by the pairs of target profits and bounds on either the probability of failure or the expected profit shortfall. We present an extensive computational experience on the actual problem, by comparing the risk neutral approach, the tested risk averse strategies and the performance of the traditional deterministic approach that uses the expected value of the uncertain parameters. The results clearly show the advantage of using the risk neutral strategy over the traditional deterministic approach, as well as the advantage of using any risk averse strategy over the risk neutral one.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 233, Issue 3, 16 March 2014, Pages 711-726
نویسندگان
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