Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

► Discrete Conditional Phase-type models (DC-Ph) are applied to maternity services. ► Classification trees have been successfully embedded into the DC-Ph structure. ► Clinically and statistically meaningful and robust risk groupings are produced. ► The DC-Ph models are used to calculate resourcing needs. ► The structure readily permits for scenario analyses such as changing risk status.