Exploring mechanisms underlying lock-in in large infrastructure projects: A management perspective

Research in large scale infrastructure projects have argued that the overall project performance is subject to lock-in, yet this is little understood empirically and more research is needed. Recently studies reported that lock-in can occur both at the decision-making level and at the project execution level respectively. The underlying patterns influencing project scope transformation, due to evolving expectations and/or stakeholder's perspective and the occurrence of lock-in influence in project performance. This paper explores the relationship between project scope and lock-in within large infrastructure projects in the context of cost over-run. Based on empirical data from 20 High Speed Rail (HSR) projects in Spain with multinational sets of actors, and anchored in the Management of Project (MoP) paradigm, the paper shows that a holistic perspective is essential for successful outcome. Methodologically, the paper uses data mining and a case study approach to explore mechanisms that underlie lock-in in relation with scope demarcation - tracked through contract change. It suggests that an investigation of lock-in in relationship to scope demarcation and through the lens of path dependence contributes to the understanding of cost over-run emergence. Preliminary findings highlight contract type and its content to have a great influence in cost over-run.