کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6922633 865035 2015 18 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Detecting precursory patterns to enhance earthquake prediction in Chile
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تشخیص الگوهای پیشین برای پیش بینی زلزله در شیلی
کلمات کلیدی
سری زمانی لرزه ای، پیش بینی زلزله، کشف الگو، خوشه بندی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزارهای علوم کامپیوتر
چکیده انگلیسی
The prediction of earthquakes is a task of utmost difficulty that has been widely addressed by using many different strategies, with no particular good results thus far. Seismic time series of the four most active Chilean zones, the country with largest seismic activity, are analyzed in this study in order to discover precursory patterns for large earthquakes. First, raw data are transformed by removing aftershocks and foreshocks, since the goal is to only predict main shocks. New attributes, based on the well-known b-value, are also generated. Later, these data are labeled, and consequently discretized, by the application of a clustering algorithm, following the suggestions found in recent literature. Earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4.4 are identified in the time series. Finally, the sequence of labels acting as precursory patterns for such earthquakes are searched for within the datasets. Results verging on 70% on average are reported, leading to conclude that the methodology proposed is suitable to be applied in other zones with similar seismicity.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Computers & Geosciences - Volume 76, March 2015, Pages 112-120
نویسندگان
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