Trends in injury morbidity in China, 1993-2013: A longitudinal analysis of population-based survey data

Understanding long-term trends in injury morbidity is critical to prevention and intervention planning. The aim of this study was to assess long-term trends in injury morbidity rates in China from 1993 to 2013. Using data from the National Health Service Survey (NHSS), which is conducted every five years, crude and age-standardized prevalence during the previous two weeks and hospitalization rates in the last 12 months with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The Rao-Scott Chi-square test examined injury morbidity differences across the five survey years by location (urban/rural), sex, age group, and household income. Percent changes in morbidity rate were approximated using logistic regressions. Sampling weights were applied to all analyses. In 2013, crude two-week injury prevalence in China was 0.46% (95% CI: 0.40%, 0.52%) and 12-month crude hospitalization rate was 0.70% (95% CI: 0.63%, 0.77%). Age-standardized injury prevalence increased 31.4% (95% CI: 7.6%, 60.6%) between 1993 and 2013 (29.4%, 95% CI: 6.7%, 56.9% from 1993-2003; 1.6%, 95% CI: -14.8%, 21.0% from 2003-2013), and age-standardized hospitalization rates rose 107.2% (95% CI: 75.1%, 145.2%) from 1993 to 2013 (-9.5%, 95% CI: -24.6%, 8.6% from 1993-2003 and 129.0%, 95% CI: 93.9%, 170.4% from 2003-2013). Subgroup analyses showed similar trends over time. The leading cause of injury was dislocation, sprain or strain for prevalence, and fractures for hospitalization. In conclusion, injury morbidity increased substantially from 1993 to 2013 in China. Inconsistent changes in two-week prevalence and 12-month hospitalization rate merit attention from researchers and policy-makers.