کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6965224 | 1452886 | 2018 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل عوامل ثابت و پویا که بر وقوع حوادث بزرگراه تاثیر می گذارد
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کلمات کلیدی
وقوع حادثه، مجله مخلوط دوتایی، پارامترهای تصادفی گروه بندی شده مرتبط پارامترهای تصادفی غیر وابسته، ویژگی های پویا و ثابت پارامترهای متغیر زمان
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی شیمی
بهداشت و امنیت شیمی
چکیده انگلیسی
Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Accident Analysis & Prevention - Volume 113, April 2018, Pages 330-340
Journal: Accident Analysis & Prevention - Volume 113, April 2018, Pages 330-340
نویسندگان
Grigorios Fountas, Md Tawfiq Sarwar, Panagiotis Ch. Anastasopoulos, Alan Blatt, Kevin Majka,