Evaluating the road safety effects of a fuel cost increase measure by means of zonal crash prediction modeling

► This study aims to evaluate traffic safety effects of a fuel-cost increase scenario. ► An activity-based transportation model is applied to produce exposure variables. ► Crash prediction models are developed at an aggregate level (traffic analysis zone). ► The results show considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the scenario. ► Total crashes are predicted to decrease by 2.83% after implementing the scenario.