Country-level assessment of long-term global bioenergy potential

We find a global biofuel supply potential increasing from 15-70 EJ final transport fuel energy (30-140 EJ primary energy) currently to 40-190 EJ (130-400 EJ) in 2070, depending on the development of land-use, productivity and technology mix. Over 3/4 of this potential comes from energy crops: up to 70% could come from food crops and at least 10% from lignocellulosic crops. The remaining quarter would be from agricultural and forestry residues. For comparison, current (2010) total global energy use (fuel, heat and electricity) stands at 365 EJ final energy (530 EJ primary energy). Depending on demand developments, countries such as Brazil or Russia could become net bioenergy exporters in the second half of the century, while others, such as India or Nigeria, may become net importers.