Climate Change and Stability: The Case of the Mediterranean Region

To analyze the potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change, an integrated assessment framework is presented to analyze the causal links between climate stress factors, natural resources, human impacts and societal instability. Sensitivities between key linkages are important to assess tipping points and cascading effects that could trigger a sequence of destabilizing events. The analysis is important for developing adaptive capabilities and strategies for mitigation and adaptation that minimize security risks and conflicts and strengthen institutions, economic well-being, energy systems and other critical infrastructures. Within the general framework, potential security risks and conflict regarding water and energy will be discussed for the Mediterranean region.