Value-at-Risk Assessment of Dynamic Network Loading

Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) models are widely used for online and offline applications for efficient deployment of traffic control strategies and the evaluation of traffic management schemes and policies. Stable and robust time dependent network states, which are represented by a DTA model, are of great importance for ensuring the existence of network equilibrium through time. Thus, a valid statistical measure is needed for assessing dynamic network loading solutions with regards to their endogenous calculation risk and therefore providing a useful and easily applicable tool for practitioners in selecting the less risky option. In this paper we have considered a common method, Value-at-Risk assessment of financial portfolios, for the assessment of the dynamic network loading solution. The proposed method is implemented on two reference networks and the results are presented here.