TIME SERIES MODELS TO FORECAST AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND: A STUDY ABOUT A REGIONAL AIRPORT

In this work, both univariate and multivariate air transport demand ARIMA models are proposed to estimate the demand levels about Reggio Calabria regional airport (South of Italy), in order to make available a tool able to analyse the impact of recent modifications in the supply (new links, new destinations and lower fares) that are expected to produce an increase in the air transport demand, also due to induced trips generated by the new supply. Differences between the univariate and multivariate models are highlighted. The models calibrations have been obtained by using the Box-Jenkins procedure.