A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications

Avionics (aeronautics and aerospace) industries must rely on components and systems of demonstrated high reliability. For this, handbook-based methods have been traditionally used to design for reliability, develop test plans, and define maintenance requirements and sustainment logistics. However, these methods have been criticized as flawed and leading to inaccurate and misleading results. In its recent report on enhancing defense system reliability, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has recently discredited these methods, judging the Military Handbook (MIL-HDBK-217) and its progeny as invalid and inaccurate. This paper discusses the issues that arise with the use of handbook-based methods in commercial and military avionics applications. Alternative approaches to reliability design (and its demonstration) are also discussed, including similarity analysis, testing, physics-of-failure, and data analytics for prognostics and systems health management.