Expert Assessment of Alternatives to Change the Location of the Port of Varna

The Port of Varna East is one of the main port facilities on the West Black sea coast. A major issue in its future development is the question of whether to keep the port at its present location within the city limits or move it to another location and develop a recreational center on its place. In this practically-oriented study, four alternatives for the future development of the Port of Varna east area are outlined, and a detailed expert-based analysis is conducted. An original procedure, called REPOMP (Randomized Expert Panel Opinion Marginalizing Procedure) is employed for the selection. A hierarchical structure of criteria is elaborated, and experts have provided their opinion regarding those criteria for each alternative. Simulation procedures are used to define the best point estimate and the standard deviation of the total marginal criterion. Hypothesis testing procedure is also employed to define indifference classes of the alternatives.