Power System Reliability Evaluation Using Safety Factor Concept And Simpson's 1/3rd Rule

This paper describes a methodology based on Gaussian distribution approach for generating capacity reliability evaluation of a power system. The presented methodology has developed using continuous probability distribution function. The failure probability evaluation of generating system accounts the load models as load duration curve and is based on maximum average generation capacity. The probability of load exceeding the generating capacity has also been considered in LOLP evaluation. The described methodology in this paper is based on safety factor concept and peak load considerations. The test results using proposed methodology and various discussions have been presented for various generating capacity and load data available at Vijay Wada super thermal power plant, A. P.; India. Obtained results from extensive testing of the proposed method at different generating capacity and load demand considerations of Indian power system confirm the validity of the developed approach.