GARCH MODELS FOR DRUG EFFECTS ON PATIENT HEART RATE, DURING GENERAL ANAESTHESIA

A model that can describe the effect of anaesthetic drugs on patient's heart rate (HR) is of great importance when considering haemodynamic stability under surgery. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to model HR considering the effect concentrations of the anaesthetic propofol and the analgesic remifentanil, using the clinical data of 16 patients. The model was able to capture the HR trend in all 16 patients with very small errors throughout the surgical time. A correlation was found between the GARCH parameters and patient baseline characteristics, leading to the possibility a patient adjusted adaptive model.