کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
723887 892354 2006 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
DEMAND FORECASTING FOR MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING ITEMS WITH LOW CONSUMPTION AND SHORT REQUESTS HISTORY
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مکانیک محاسباتی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
DEMAND FORECASTING FOR MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING ITEMS WITH LOW CONSUMPTION AND SHORT REQUESTS HISTORY
چکیده انگلیسی

The paper considers the problem of modelling the lead-time demand for the multiple slow-moving inventory items with low consumption and short requests history. The Bayesian approach is used to overcome the problems with the past demand data: the beta-binomial model is employed to predict the lead-time demand probability distribution for each item. Further, an extension of this model is developed that allows accounting for the prior information regarding the maximum expected probability of demand per period. Parameter estimation and Bayesian forecasting routines are derived for the new model. The practical significance of the obtained results is supported by the simulation study.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: IFAC Proceedings Volumes - Volume 39, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 161-166