کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7256699 | 1472406 | 2015 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Seizing the X-events. The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
The article addresses the long-term patterns of societal change. In particular, it considers how certain high-impact, surprising events (“X-events”) can change existing trends and thus give rise to a future that does not follow the “business-as-usual” default trend-following scenario. We look at the case of Kondratieff waves (“K-waves”), those socio-economic cycles by which dynamical societal patterns are often detected in futures studies. We postulate four hypothetical X-events and how they might fundamentally change the existing trend and thus take us to a very different kind of future. Finally, we recommend a set of principles through which organisations and countries can follow to deal with X-events should they occur.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 94, May 2015, Pages 335-349
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 94, May 2015, Pages 335-349
نویسندگان
Markku Wilenius, John Casti,