Way station or launching pad? Unpacking the returns to adult technical education

We estimate returns to diplomas and certificates awarded to adult students by public technology centers, a niche sector of higher education that elevates occupational and competency-based education over transferable credits and traditional degrees. Technology centers cater to nontraditional students, particularly adults seeking part-time training in specific skills. Sub-associate credentials arising from Tennessee Colleges of Applied Technology increase access to new industries, particularly health, and industrial mobility explains half of the employment returns to postsecondary diplomas and at least three-quarters of the earnings returns to certificates. TCAT diploma completers earn $707-1034 in additional quarterly earnings over non-completers, similar to the returns from community college diplomas. Benefits extend beyond the signal value of completion: students who leave without a credential fare significantly better than matched non-students with a similar history of earnings.