کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7408128 1481430 2018 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تصمیم گیری بین روش های جایگزین در اقتصاد کلان
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی
Macroeconomic time-series data are aggregated, inaccurate, non-stationary, collinear and rarely match theoretical concepts. Macroeconomic theories are incomplete, incorrect and changeable: location shifts invalidate the law of iterated expectations and 'rational expectations' are then systematically biased. Empirical macro-econometric models are non-constant and mis-specified in numerous ways, so economic policy often has unexpected effects, and macroeconomic forecasts go awry. In place of using just one of the four main methods of deciding between alternative models, theory, empirical evidence, policy relevance and forecasting, we propose nesting 'theory-driven' and 'data-driven' approaches, where theory-models' parameter estimates are unaffected by selection despite searching over rival candidate variables, longer lags, functional forms, and breaks. Thus, theory is retained, but not imposed, so can be simultaneously evaluated against a wide range of alternatives, and a better model discovered when the theory is incomplete.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 34, Issue 1, January–March 2018, Pages 119-135
نویسندگان
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