Discussion of “Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys”

This paper discusses the contribution of Lahiri and Monokroussos, published in the current issue of this journal, where they investigate the nowcasting power of ISM Business Surveys for real US GDP. The second part of this note includes some empirical considerations on nowcasting quarterly real GDP by using the monthly PMI index for Switzerland. The results indicate that the Swiss PMI is not leading GDP growth; rather, it is coincident, and its nowcasting power is quite good. The signs of the fitted values mostly correspond to the sign of the actual GDP growth, and the important turning points are identified accurately by the model. This also holds true during the recent crisis.