کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7409432 1481525 2016 18 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Stress testing the EU fiscal framework
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
استرس تست چارچوب مالی اتحادیه اروپا
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و مالیه (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
This study evaluates the efficiency of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CABB) as the central gauge in the reinforced European fiscal framework for evaluating fiscal discipline. We do this by means of a simulation experiment. We use an estimated DSGE model to simulate all the macroeconomic data needed to assess the CABB according to the official EC methodology. Additionally, the model contains an expenditure fiscal rule that accounts for non-automatic variation in the budget, which allows us to observe the true discretionary measures of fiscal policy. Our results indicate that the EC methodology frequently fails to identify the true fiscal policy stance and also frequently fails to correctly signal potential violations of the SGP limit on structural deficit. In the latter case triggering corrective fiscal contractions to comply with the SGP results in increased macroeconomic instability. In addition, we show that allowing for a bigger role for stability-oriented discretionary policy and thus relaxing the SGP limit on structural deficit could enhance the stabilization efficiency of fiscal policy without reducing the degree of compliance with the Maastricht Treaty. These conclusions apply to small countries in a monetary union as well as large countries with independent monetary policy.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Financial Stability - Volume 26, October 2016, Pages 276-293
نویسندگان
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