Friends. Foes. Frenemies? Unpacking the future of EU-Turkey relations

Applying the foresight methodology, which helps avoid prejudging the future of the EU-Turkey relations, we came up with three scenarios thereof, namely “down in the dumps”, “frenemies in flexible and functional cooperation” and “into the European fold”. The scenarios are informed by three drivers, that are the intra-EU dynamics, internal developments in Turkey, and the situation in the joint neighbourhood, which we see as key determinants of the possible EU-Turkey futures.