Modelling sustainable energy futures for the UK

As a result of signing the Kyoto Agreement the UK will need to reduce carbon emissions to 20% of their 1990 value by 2050. This will require a complete change in power generation over the next 40 years. The system involved is immensely complex, with multiple agents, levels of description, new technologies and new policies and actions. However, here we develop a relatively simple spatial, dynamic model representing a basic part of the problem - the changing geographical distribution of electrical generation capacity in the UK. It runs from 2010 until 2050 and allows the exploration of the different pattern of investments in, and closures of, generation capacity. It was develop as part of the CASCADE project on Smart Grids to provide scenarios for annual changes in generating capacity. It provides generation scenarios for much more complex, multi-agent models, such as that developed in the CASCADE project, that represent the short-term (30 min time step) dynamics of the wholesale and retail energy markets. The model allows us to explore different possible pathways to 2050 and the difficulty of the overall endeavour. In order to increase electricity production but reduce CO2 emissions, we shall need to close our current coal/gas generating plants and make a vast investment in new low carbon generating capacity. The model allows us to rapidly the possible consequences of innovations in technologies, and to re-shape plans in the light of as new opportunities and circumstances.