Energy modeling for an efficient system development in Indonesian Province Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT)

The Indonesian province Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) has a great potential of renewable energy, especially geothermal resources. However, electricity demand nowadays is mainly served by diesel generators. For inducing a change in the power generation portfolio the Indonesian government has formulated the goal to generate 25% of the electricity with renewable energy carriers from 2025 on. There are numerous possible ways for reaching this goal. In the course of this study a computational energy model was implemented to evaluate future system configurations. The evaluation was based on six different analysis scenarios. Particular scenario components were defined with different available options, e.g. high or low potential of renewables and the scenarios were determined by the combination of the chosen component options. The model area was divided into 10 model regions with specific properties and the temporal horizon of the model mostly covered a time period until 2032. The results showed a favored fast expansion of geothermal and hydro generation technologies in NTT. For regions without these resources electricity generation by coal fired plants was preferred over oil fired plants. However, it is recommended to keep certain capacities of oil fired plants for peak demand. Additionally, carbon dioxide tracking was included and a comparison of the emissions among the scenarios showed a significant impact of decreasing investment prices for renewable technologies and the 25% policy.