A GIS-based approach for electrification planning-A case study on Nigeria

According to the latest Global Tracking Framework (2015), 18% of the global and 57% of the African population live without access to electricity services-a key impediment towards social and economic growth. Accelerating access to electricity requires, inter alia, strategies and programmes that effectively address and account for the geographical, infrastructural and socioeconomic characteristics of a country or region. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by developing a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies. The methodology is applied to Nigeria in order to identify the optimal mix of electrification options, ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions. The case study illustrates how this optimal mix is influenced by a range of parameters-including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems and fuel costs for consumers. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Nigeria; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 86% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as the time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population densities where a mini-grid or a stand-alone solution are the most economic options; deploying some combination of solar, wind, hydro and diesel technologies depending on the locational resource availability.