Towards a more circular construction sector: Estimating and spatialising current and future non-structural material replacement flows to maintain urban building stocks

Results show that plasterboard (7 175 t), carpet (7 116 t), timber (6 097 t) and ceramics (3 500 t) have the highest average annual replacement rate over the studied time period. Overall, replacing non-structural materials resulted in a significant flow of 26 kt/annum, 36 kg/(capita·annum) or 721 t/(km2·annum). These figures were found to be compatible with official waste statistics. Results include maps depicting which material quantities are estimated to be replaced in each building, as well as an age pyramid of materials, representing the accumulation of materials in the stock, according to their service lives. The proposed model can inform decision-making for a more circular construction sector.