کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7539447 1488967 2015 21 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Nonlinear multivariate time-space threshold vector error correction model for short term traffic state prediction
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل تصحیح خطای آستانه زمان-فضای چندگانه غیر خطی برای پیش بینی وضع ترافیک کوتاه مدت
کلمات کلیدی
هم انباشتگی، اصلاح خطای تصادفی تغییر رژیم آستانه، پیش بینی وضعیت کوتاه مدت ترافیک، شبکه عصبی،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم تصمیم گیری علوم مدیریت و مطالعات اجرایی
چکیده انگلیسی
We propose Time-Space Threshold Vector Error Correction (TS-TVEC) model for short term (hourly) traffic state prediction. The theory and method of cointegration with error correction mechanism is employed in the general design of the new statistical model TS-TVEC. An inherent connection between mathematical form of error correction model and traffic flow theory is revealed through the transformation of the well-known Fundamental Traffic Diagrams. A threshold regime switching framework is implemented to overcome any unknown structural changes in traffic time series. Spatial cross correlated information is incorporated with a piecewise linear vector error correction model. A Neural Network model is also constructed in parallel to comparatively test the effectiveness and robustness of the new statistical model. Our empirical study shows that the TS-TVEC model is an effective tool that is capable of modeling the complexity of stochastic traffic flow processes and potentially applicable to real time traffic state prediction.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological - Volume 76, June 2015, Pages 27-47
نویسندگان
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