A probabilistic approach to fatigue risk assessment in aerospace components

This paper describes a new possible approach to fatigue design of aerospace components founded on probabilistic bases compared with safe life and damage tolerance that are founded on deterministic bases.A numerical tool has been introduced and explained together with the experimental activity for its validation analyses.For a typical aerospace component, such as a lap-joint panel, an acceptable maximum risk level has been established and the maintenance program has been planned to ensure operating life without catastrophic failures.The analysis has shown that this new approach introduces several benefits in fatigue design.