کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
785432 | 1466094 | 2012 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings.
► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve.
► The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling.
► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.
Journal: International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping - Volume 92, April 2012, Pages 84–95