The extrapolation of creep rupture data by PD6605 – An independent case study

The worked example presented in BSI document PD6605-1:1998, to illustrate the selection, validation and extrapolation of a creep rupture model using statistical analysis, was independently examined. Alternative rupture models were formulated and analysed by the same statistical methods, and were shown to represent the test data more accurately than the original model. Median rupture lives extrapolated from the original and alternative models were found to diverge widely under some conditions of practical interest.The tests prescribed in PD6605 and employed to validate the original model were applied to the better of the alternative models. But the tests were unable to discriminate between the two, demonstrating that these tests fail to ensure reliability in extrapolation. The difficulties of determining when a model is sufficiently reliable for use in extrapolation are discussed and some proposals are made.