Estimation of maximum axial force of anchor bolts in consideration of random bolt failures

This paper proposes a method for structural reliability analysis of anchor bolts used in the support skirt of a reactor vessel. The method is based on the conservative assumption that a few anchor bolts within the skirt's inner-wall may fail in a random nature. Under the assumption, the maximum axial forces in the intact bolts are estimated. To reflect the uncertainty, random numbers are generated to simulate the possible failed bolts among a total of 60 bolts, which are circumferentially arranged along the inner side of the wall. Then the outcome of failed bolts together with their locations for every 60 bolts is defined as an experiment of a sample. The locations of failed bolt can significantly affect the stress analysis and its random outcomes require an efficient calculation scheme. In this paper we propose a rapid calculation algorithm, thus the direction of bending moment that causes the worst scenario in the stress analysis of bolts for each experiment can be rapidly found. Taking into consideration of design loads, the finite element method is further employed to calculate the maximum axial bolt force of each experiment. After statistical analysis of maximum axial forces from all experiments, the average maximum axial-force interval that the remaining bolts can withstand under a given random condition is estimated with a 95% confidence level. This interval can be used in conjunction with various results of structural integrity assessment to ensure the structural safety and reliability of a nuclear power plant component.