Load and Renewable Energy Forecasting for a Microgrid using Persistence Technique

The concept is based on persistence method presented in [1]. This method uses the “today equals tomorrow” concept. From [2], we know that persistence technique produces results that are more accurate as compared to other forecasting techniques for a look-ahead time of 4-6 hours. Both [1] and [2] were based on wind power forecasting. In this paper, we investigate persistence method for short-term electrical demand, solar PV (Photovoltaic) power and wind power forecasting. Since the forecasts are dependent on historical averages of the data in the 'near' past, the accuracy is inversely proportional to the variation of power between the historical data and the actual data.