A study on mitigation potential in service building sector: Efficient technology implications of China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

In 2015 China submitted its “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in preparation for the Conference of Parties 21. China's INDC called for several low carbon actions toward 2030, and one of the important actions by 2030 in the China's INDC is to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emission per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level. In this study, we concentrate in service sector and estimates CO2 emission from six sub-sectors: office building, retail and store, hotel and restaurant, education, health care and others. Considering the gap of tertiary industry development and climate diversity across regions, we base our study on regional analysis and the study subject includes 31 provincial regions of mainland China. We first use a bottom-up cost optimization model called AIM/Enduse to evaluate the CO2 reduction potential brought about by efficient technologies in China's service buildings. Then we design mitigation scenarios to examine the achievability of China's INDC as well as the efforts of service sector in achieving the CO2 reduction target stated in China's INDC. The results show that the service sector has a certain potential to succeed a no-regrets CO2 reduction target by 2030. For achieving China's INDC target, all six sub-sectors need implement more efficient technologies. Reduction rates vary across provinces due to climatic variations and different development statuses of tertiary industry.