Monte Carlo simulation of extrusion die life

Due to the high cost of metal forming tools (especially in hot extrusion), one of the major goals in tool design is a longer service life. Estimation and prediction of tool life thus becomes critically important for performance evaluation of the tools. The two most dominant failure mechanisms for extrusion dies (solid, hollow, and semi-hollow dies all taken together) are fracture and wear. In the first part of the paper, a fracture mechanics based fatigue life prediction model is described. A similar treatment is then presented for wear-related failures. Fracture and wear usually coexist as failure modes, and final die breakdown occurs due to the mechanism that becomes dominant. Therefore, a competing fracture–wear model has been later developed to represent the complete die failure situation. Attempt has been made to correlate the stochastic nature of various fatigue and wear related die parameters to die life. Monte Carlo simulation has been used to predict the life distribution of a die for a given set of manufacturing conditions and mechanical properties. In comparison with actual life data from the industry, the simulated life yields very realistic predictions.