کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
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805441 | 905144 | 2007 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |

An efficient algorithm has been proposed for determining the probability of failure of structures containing flaws. The algorithm is based on a powerful generic equation, a central parameter in which is the conditional individual probability of initiating failure by a single flaw. The equation avoids conservative predictions related to the probability of locally initiated failure and is a powerful alternative to existing approaches. It is based on the concept of ‘conditional individual probability of initiating failure’ characterising a single fault, which permits us to relate in a simple fashion the conditional individual probability of failure characterising a single fault to the probability of failure characterising a population of faults. A method for estimating the conditional individual probability has been proposed based on combining a Monte Carlo simulation and a failure criterion.The generic equation has been modified to determine the probability of fatigue failure initiated by flaws. Other important applications discussed in the paper also include: comparing different types of loading and selecting the type of loading associated with the smallest probability of over-stress failure; optimizing designs by minimizing their vulnerability to over-stress failure initiated by flaws; determining failure triggered by random faults in a large system and determining the probability of overloading of a supply system from random demands.
Journal: Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics - Volume 22, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 12–21