Analysis of achievable residential energy-saving potential and its implications for effective policy interventions: A study of Xiamen city in southern China

This paper explores opportunities for effective policy intervention for residential energy savings in southern China, by analyzing achievable potential of residential energy savings in the city of Xiamen as a case study. In contrast to static technical and economic potential analyses, the achievable potential analysis is based on dynamic energy consumption projections, which consider two real-world factors: (1) gradual ramping-up adoption process of advanced technical measures; and (2) consumers' adoption of these measures. A bottom-up type Residential Energy Consumption (REC) projection model specifically tailored for southern China was developed in this paper, based on the general logic and calculation principles utilized in the U.S. EIA's “National Energy Modeling System (NEMS),” and the adoption theory of advanced technical measures proposed by Kastovich. This REC projection model was then used as a policy analysis tool to quantitatively evaluate the impact of various policies on residential energy savings in the case study city of Xiamen. The analysis of the Xiamen case shows that although there is a significant technical potential for residential energy savings in the city (about 20.9-24.9%), the maximum achievable potential (MAP) in 2020 is only about 8.3-8.4% of that year's business-as-usual baseline consumption. Moreover, with existing policies only about one-fourth to half of the calculated MAP is likely to be achieved by 2020. These findings indicate that in order to realize a larger share of achievable potential for residential energy savings in China, additional and more effective polices are needed.